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2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season
This will be a holiday-themed season similar to Steve's "2013-14 North Pole Hurricane Season". However, since Steve is gone, I have decided to do one this year. I know it's not the holiday season yet, but it will be soon. This will be an as-it-unfolds season with frequent updates coming to this page between now and the week after Christmas. The 2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season '''is an active event in the Arctic Ocean basin. The season will officially begin on November 1 and end on January 7, dates that typically delimit the start and beginning of the season. However, Polar Storm Angel formed nearly 4 weeks before the season officially begins on October 5. Angel later intensified into a Polar Cyclone, becoming the second-earliest polar cyclone on record. Storm formation can also occur outside of the designated dates. The most common time for storms to form though is from mid-to-late December. Storms, even tropical cyclones, can cross from other basins into the Arctic basin. Should this happen, the storm would keep their original name. These types of storms are more common early in the season. Season Summary Pre-Season Forecasts Due to mixed reports on what conditions would exist in the Arctic Ocean, no predictions were issued for this season. The BNWC says that there is a near equal chance in a below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal season. Average activity in the basin has roughly 15 named storms, 8 polar cyclones, and 3 major cyclones, with roughly two to four storms making landfall in the north pole. If you still want to make a pre-season prediction, make it here! October The season had a very early start. On October 4, the first invest of the season formed, Invest 90N, and was first listed with 15 mph winds. The system then intensified into Polar Storm Angel on October 5. Angel later acquired hurricane-force winds on October 7, prompting an upgrade to Weak Polar Cyclone status. Live Arctic Cyclone Updates '''Weak Polar Cyclone ANGEL - Updated October 7, 2015 3:00 PM EDT Maximum Sustained Winds (1-minute): 85 mph, Minimum Pressure: 984 mbar Polar Cyclone ANGEL has not intensified over the past few hours due to an unexpected rise in wind shear. The latest path of Angel has it taking a more eastward turn, which will likely make a landfall unlikely, and will also inhibit the storm's development. One model of the storm now has Angel dissipating on Saturday, while another one still has it strengthening into a major polar cyclone, although this model seems like an outlier now. The forecast path has changed into a much less favorable environment, which could indicate that Angel has peaked in strength and will likely not get much stronger, if it all. The trajectory path continues to shift to the east, which means a North Pole landfall is now highly unlikely. The area that the storm is heading into has fairly strong wind shear of 20-30 knots, which will likely inhibit development. A shift in the ridge will make rapid intensification unlikely as well. Next Advisory scheduled for 8AM EDT October 8. Forecast Trajectory 11PM Wed - 90 MPH 11AM Thu - 85 MPH 11PM Thu - 75 MPH 11AM Fri - 60 MPH 11AM Sat - 40 MPH 11AM Sun - DISSIPATED Additional polar cyclone formation is not expected in the next 5 days. - BNWC Storms Polar Cyclone Angel On October 4, the Bob Nekaro Weather Center began monitoring a small area of low pressure producing snow showers, located about 400 miles south of the North Pole, directly north of Canada. At their first advisory at 4PM EDT, the BNWC predicted that the disturbance would have a 0% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days. However, the storm rapidly intensified, and was given an 80% chance of development by 3PM on October 5. Later that afternoon, satellite imagery from a BNWC Cyclone Hunters aircraft found a closed circulation and named the storm Polar Storm ''Angel ''nearly four weeks before the season officially begins. Angel later strengthened on October 6, and acquired Polar Cyclone status on October 7 at 3:00 PM. Timeline ImageSize = width:650 height:325 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:190 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/10/2015 till:15/01/2016 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/10/2015 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Polar_Depression_=_<39_mph id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Polar_Storm_=_39-73_mph id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Weak_Polar_Cyclone_=_74-95_mph id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Moderate_Polar_Cyclone_=_96-110_mph id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Intense_Polar_Cyclone_=_111-129_mph id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Severe_Polar_Cyclone_=_130-155_mph id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Catastrophic_Polar_Cyclone_≥_156_mph Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:05/10/2015 till:07/10/2015 color:C1 text: Angel (WK) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/10/2015 till:01/11/2015 text:October from:01/11/2015 till:01/12/2015 text:November from:01/12/2015 till:01/01/2016 text:December from:01/01/2016 till:15/01/2016 text:January 2016 Scale This scale is based off the Saffir-Simpson scale, but with different classifications. Names Used A Christmas-themed name list will be used. These names are all different from Steve's. Should all names be used, the Hebrew alphabet will be used to name the storms. Storms List Category:Currently Active seasons Category:Arctic cyclone seasons